Wall Street gains with euro zone, consumer hopes – Break to the upside, bought GLD & DBO November 28, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in DBO, GLD.add a comment
Stocks rebounded from seven days of losses on Monday as investors used the latest effort from European leaders to resolve the region’s debt crisis as an opportunity to cover short positions.
Trading was light, a sign skepticism remains high. Just 6.8 billion shares changed hands during the day on U.S. exchanges, below the daily average of 8 billion shares.
The Dow Jones industrial average was up 291.23 points, or 2.59 percent, at 11,523.01. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 33.88 points, or 2.92 percent, at 1,192.55. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 85.83 points, or 3.52 percent, at 2,527.34. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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Today RSI generated two buy signals, which I bought today:
- Buy 1408 shares of PowerShares DB Oil (DBO)
- Buy 238 shares of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
As I mentioned in the last blog I have been monitoring gold and energy funds for a resumption of their uptrend. Today these two funds did just that, a break to the upside.
Let’s look at their charts.
Since the slide in crude oil prices this past May, DBO has likewise slid in price until its reversal in early October. It then started a strong uptrend. It dipped recently but then appears to have bounced off its ascending trendline. With today’s acquisition in DBO, we now have our limit of energy positions.
GLD, may also have bounced off its ascending trendline. Remember, that GLD holds the physical gold bullion against its shares.
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Next RSI will be monitoring the unleveraged, short ETFs for pullbacks. Several of the short market funds have climbed too fast. Monitor them for a pullback and retracement. Short funds such as:
- ProShares Short Russell2000 (RWM) 89
- ProShares Short SmallCap600 (SBB) 80
- ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM) 94
- ProShares Short MidCap400 (MYY) 88
- ProShares Short MSCI EAFE (EFZ) 95
- ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ) 77
- ProShares Short Financials (SEF) 94
- Active Bear ETF (HDGE) 95
- ProShares Short High Yield (SJB) 92
Now that Thanksgiving is over, we have the Santa Clause rally to look forward to. If that rally falls short of expectations, look out below.
Stocks suffer worst week in 2 months on Europe woes – RSI weathers the week quite well November 25, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in PPH.add a comment
Stocks posted seven straight sessions of losses on Friday, ending the worst week in two months, as the lack of a credible solution to Europe’s debt crisis kept investors away from risky assets.
Wall Street traded higher for most of the abbreviated session on hopes that "Black Friday," the traditional start of the U.S. holiday shopping season, would support major retailers. But gains were quickly offset by headlines out of Europe that further dented market sentiment. With less than 20 minutes before the close, all three stock indexes had turned negative.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 25.77 points, or 0.23 percent, to 11,231.78 at the close. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX declined 3.12 points, or 0.27 percent, to 1,158.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC shed 18.57 points, or 0.75 percent, to 2,441.51.
For the week, the S&P 500 fell 4.7 percent, giving back almost two-thirds of its gains in October, the market’s best month in 20 years. The Dow was off 4.8 percent for the week and the Nasdaq fell 5.1 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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On balance, the RSI portfolio had a good week. Because of its defensive posture, the bond positions offset the more market correlated positions. The position in PPH was closed out on the 24th when it approached its stops. Otherwise, its total portfolio was pretty close to flat for the week. A far cry from the almost 5% market selloff. Of the six RSI holdings, four are in the black and two are red. By far the biggest winner is ZROZ with a gain of 26.8% or +4.2R.
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The portfolio cash reserves have grown to almost 50%. For the week ahead I will be monitoring most of the “short the market” RTFs to back off their parabolic rise for a possible entry point. Likewise for some of the energy funds. Finally I’m monitoring some of the gold funds for a confirmation of a return their previous strong uptrend.
Have a great weekend.
U.S. stocks off for fifth day; euro up on IMF move – RSI flashes a buy on PLW November 22, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in PLW.add a comment
U.S. stocks fell for a fifth straight day on Tuesday, extending losses from across Europe, after worries over U.S. economic growth, while the euro rose on a new IMF initiative to contain Europe’s debt crisis.
The U.S. government said the U.S. economy grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, below the initial estimate of a 2.5 percent growth rate, and below expectations for a 2.5 percent reading.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 53.59 points, or 0.46 percent, to end at 11,493.72. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX slipped 4.94 points, or 0.41 percent, to finish at 1,188.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dipped 1.86 points, or 0.07 percent, to close at 2,521.28. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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Despite the down market, the RSI portfolio put in a good day today. After the close RSI generated a new buy signal:
- Buy 524 shares PowerShares 1-30 Laddered Treasury (PLW); Stop $30.57
In today’s market environment, this fund looks like a good move. It is an a good short term and long term uptrend. It pays out a +3.89% yield, which is nothing to sneeze at. My only reservation is that it is a bit thinly traded with an average daily volume at only 50,000 shares.
I have to take a close look at PLW. Already three of the seven portfolio holdings are bond funds, so I’m cautious about loading up on bonds. However, the stock market futures are down big this evening, signaling a good chance that this week will be a bad week. Historically, Thanksgiving week is a strong week.
Catch you later.
Sell-off runs into fourth day on Europe, U.S. debt worries – RSI portfolio flat November 21, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in PPH.add a comment
U.S. stocks fell for a fourth session on Monday, as the lack of progress in dealing with heavy debt both in the United States and Europe further sapped investor confidence in equities.
Risky assets like commodities also fell, sparking a sell-off in shares of industrials and energy companies. Volume was lower than average, with investors more inclined to sit on the sidelines amid the uncertainty.
Late on Monday, the co-chairs of a U.S. congressional "super committee" said they have failed to reach a deal on reducing federal government deficits
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slid 248.85 points, or 2.11 percent, to end at 11,547.31. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX lost 22.67 points, or 1.86 percent, to finish at 1,192.98. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 49.36 points, or 1.92 percent, to close at 2,523.14. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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The RSI portfolio was dead flat today, a state which is quite preferable to to the –2% drubbing the market took today. Good % gains were turned in on VXX and ZROZ but they were offset by the 1.8% loss from PPH (Pharmaceutical HOLDRS). It is behaving badly, like the rest of the market with a 1.8% drop. I may have to sell it if PPH doesn’t progress better.
I’m concerned that the recent market weakness, going into the Thanksgiving holiday, may accelerate through next week. I’m assuming that market players want out before the holiday weekend, knowing that the rest of the world will still be trading without us. This process just might accelerate,
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No RSI buy signals today. Catch you later.
Market eyes Europe, DC after worst week in 2 months – New positions added to RSI portfolio November 18, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in AMLP, OIL, TLT, VXX.add a comment
The worst week for U.S. stocks in two months ended with traders mostly sitting it out on Friday as they waited for politicians in Europe and the United States to tackle festering debt problems.
Friday’s directionless market showed more exhaustion than relief as Europe remained investors’ primary worry. Stocks found support after Italian and Spanish bond yields fell thanks to buying by the European Central Bank.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 25.43 points, or 0.22 percent, to 11,796.16. The S&P 500 dipped 0.48 point, or 0.04 percent, to 1,215.65. The Nasdaq Composite lost 15.49 points, or 0.60 percent, to 2,572.50.
For the week, the Dow fell 2.9 percent, the S&P dropped 3.8 percent and the Nasdaq lost 4 percent.
The S&P failed to rise above 1,225 after a drop below it on Thursday triggered massive selling, and it is now strengthening as technical resistance. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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I added four new positions to RSI based on the following buy signals:
- Buy 650 shares of AlerianMLP (AMLP); Stop $14.30
- Buy 170 shares of iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil (OIL); Stop $18.87
- Buy 110 shares of iShares Barclays 20+ Year T-Bond (TLT); Stop $109.82
- Buy 88 shares of iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX); Stop $35.94
Note - these buy signals are based upon a –1.0R risk of $1,000 Scale your positions accordingly.
All these ETFs have good long-term weekly up trends and also look good intraday charts too.
Time is pressing so I won’t do much yakking on these four charts. In addition to good looking weekly charts these daily charts look pretty terrific too. There is a good diversify in this group although AMLP and OIL are fairly correlated.
Have a great weekend.
Euro zone, technicals unnerve Wall Street – Four stops hit November 17, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in IBB, QQQ, SMH, UGL.add a comment
Trigger-happy investors dumped stocks on Thursday, scared by the market’s sudden fall through a key technical level brought on by more worries about Europe’s debt troubles.
The S&P 500 steadily slipped through the morning until it broke through 1,225, when selling picked up in both the futures and cash markets.
Investors have been increasingly focused on Europe, and markets were cautious early as bond yields in Spain and Italy rose to levels viewed as unsustainable.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 134.71 points, or 1.13 percent, to 11,770.88. The S&P 500 .SPX lost 20.73 points, or 1.68 percent, to 1,216.18. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 51.62 points, or 1.96 percent, to 2,587.99. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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Today’s troubles caused four of the RSI holdings to hit there stop loss points. These four were UGL, IBB, QQQ, and SMH. Cash reserves soared to 47%, so we have some “dry powder” to redeploy when the conditions improve. I will continue to report on any new new signals.
Catch you later.
Wall Street falls, eyes banking contagion – RSI picks five ETFs November 16, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in EIDO, IXJ, MGK, PIV, SDY.add a comment
Stocks fell on Wednesday, with selling accelerating late in the session on more warnings about the potential impact of the euro zone’s debt crisis on the global economy and the banking system.
Worries about growth weighed on sensitive sectors like financials and materials. Losses deepened after ratings agency Fitch said even though the outlook on the U.S. banking industry is stable, it could worsen if the euro-zone’s debt crisis is not resolved quickly.
Earlier, Moody’s cut ratings on various German public sector banks, citing a lower likelihood of external support if it were required.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 190.57 points, or 1.58 percent, to 11,905.59. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 20.90 points, or 1.66 percent, to 1,236.91. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 46.59 points, or 1.73 percent, to 2,639.61. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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Today the market selloff hurt the RSI portfolio as the risk on positions fell more than the risk off positions gained. The news from Europe has a grip on the market and it just won’t let go.
With that said, RSI picked trades. RSI’s picks for today:
- Buy 614 shares PowerShares S&P 500 High Quality (PIV); Volatility = 4.66%; Yield = 2.08%
- Buy 149 shares SPDR S&P Dividend (SDY); Volatility = 4.99%; Yield = 3.26%
- Buy 163 shares iShares MSCI Indonesia Invstble Mkt Idx (EIDO); Volatility = 8.21%
- Buy 159 shares iShares S&P Global Healthcare (IXJ); Volatility = 4.65%
- Buy 160 shares Vanguard Mega Cap 300 Gr Index ETF (MGK); Volatility = 5.16%
On a weekly chart, spanning back five years, PIV looks very toppy. That fact leaves me cold on this fund.
On a weekly chart, spanning back five years, SDY looks like it is at the top of its range, but not as bad as PIV. Maybe further weakening of the overall markets will drive investors into dividend paying stocks this might resume its upward trend. Time will tell.
While the Indonesian fund below could grow to be a winner, its weekly chart is showing weakness. I would wait for a better defined weekly uptrend.
Weekly weakness is also evident in IJK. Wait for a resumption of the weekly uptrend.
Ditto for MGK which also has low volume.
As you can see I am not wild about any of these, but I will be monitoring them. Catch you later.
Wall St falls as euro-zone bond yields rise – RSI picks three November 14, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in IVW, IWY, VGT.add a comment
Stocks fell on Monday as rising bond yields in Italy and other euro-zone countries reminded investors that despite changes in governments, the region’s debt crisis could still spin out of control.
Banks posted the largest losses, but overall volume was unusually weak. The KBW bank index dropped 2.5 percent, with Bank of New York Mellon down more than 4 percent.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 74.70 points, or 0.61 percent, at 12,078.98. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 12.07 points, or 0.96 percent, at 1,251.78. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 21.53 points, or 0.80 percent, at 2,657.22. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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Okay, which three did RSI pick today? It is a group of growth funds. Here they are:
- Buy 110 shares iShares S&P 500 Growth Index (IVW); Volatility = 5.33%
- Buy 270 shares iShares Russell Top 200 Growth Index (IWY); Volatility = 4.78%
- Buy 108 shares Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT); Volatility = 5.82%
The money flow looks great on this growth fund, although the price is tailing off. Long-term trend looks like it is losing steam. Wait for it to cross through $70.00.
Ditto for this growth fund too. However the weekly, long-term trend looks weak. It needs to drive through the high of $32.67 before it interests me.
Again the comments are the same. The long-term trend has to pierce through $66.00 for me to consider this fund.
Catch you later.
Wall Street gains for week as Italy fears ebb – RSI picks technology fund (IYW) November 11, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in Blogroll.add a comment
Stocks jumped on Friday, ending higher for the week after the Italian Senate’s approval of economic reforms gave investors some relief from worries about the euro zone’s debt crisis.
After another week of volatility driven by news on the crisis, the S&P 500 managed to end 0.8 percent higher for the week. However, investors remain skittish and are taking out insurance in the options market against future losses.
For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 259.89 points, or 2.19 percent, to end at 12,153.68. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was up 24.16 points, or 1.95 percent, to finish at 1,263.85. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 53.60 points, or 2.04 percent, to close at 2,678.75.
For the week, the Dow rose 1.4 percent and the S&P 500 gained 0.8 percent, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.3 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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After the close RSI picked a technology fund:
- Buy 105 shares iShares Dow Jones US Technology (IYW); Volatility = 5.74%
This chart shows good strength and IYW has a potential to move higher. Its recent weakness against the overall market is a concern (see the magenta line). This is a reflection of the weakness in Apple stock which is heavily weighted (16.7%) in this fund. It needs watching.
On the long term it needs to surpass its previous highs in order continue its LT uptrend. I would wait and see for this to transpire.
Have a great weekend.
Wall Street rebounds as corporate news offsets Italy – RSI likes dividends DLN & PFM November 11, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in DLN, PFM.add a comment
Stocks bounced back on Thursday from the previous session’s steep losses as investors latched onto positive corporate and economic news, in the absence of a clear worsening in Europe’s debt crisis.
Still, trading was volatile and volumes were thin as turmoil in Europe’s bond markets kept alive fears that the crisis could still engulf Italy.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 112.92 points, or 0.96 percent, at 11,893.86. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was up 10.60 points, or 0.86 percent, at 1,239.70. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 3.50 points, or 0.13 percent, at 2,625.15. (commentary and photo courtesy of Reuters)
RSI issued two buy recommendations:
- Buy 179 shares WisdomTree LargeCap Dividend (DLN); Volatility = 4.71%; Yield = 3.03%
- Buy 596 shares PowerShares Dividend Achievers (PFM); Volatility = 4.65%; Yield = 2.70%
These two picks represent defensive investments of the “risk off” category that pay good yields around 3%. While these two funds demonstrate good uptrending trajectories, their long term trends need to demonstrate that they can resume their prior uptrends.
Catch you later.
