Buyers exit market before House debt plan vote – Sold BHH & bought EWW July 28, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BHH, EWW.add a comment
Stocks faded in the afternoon on Thursday to end mostly lower, with investors skeptical a key vote by Congress would lead to a deal to avoid a U.S. default.
The S&P 500 fell for a fourth straight day as buyers kept to the sidelines while lawmakers tried to hash out an agreement on the deficit.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended down 62.44 points, or 0.51 percent, at 12,240.11. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was down 4.22 points, or 0.32 percent, at 1,300.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC finished up 1.46 points, or 0.05 percent, at 2,766.25. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
During the day the stop loss level on BHH was hit and it was sold. I looked at the trading and the price spiked down the first 30 minutes of the day and that’s what took me out. That is natural market forces. If I was paranoid I would have thought it was market makers picking off my stop. But i have to be a realist. I took the money and reinvested it in yesterday’s RSI pick of EWW. It had a sharp rise today but fell back to almost even by the end of the day.
There were no RSI picks today.
Deadlock, durables, dismal earnings hit Wall Street – RSI picks Mexico (EWW) July 27, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in EWW.add a comment
Wall Street suffered its worst day in eight weeks on Wednesday, hit by weak earnings, lackluster economic data and no movement in Washington talks as the deadline for a default looms.
The debt ceiling debate has grabbed much of investors’ attention this week as the August 2 deadline approaches, but it took a back seat for much of the day as the market reacted to earnings disappointments in industrial and technology sectors.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 198.75 points, or 1.59 percent, at 12,302.55. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 27.05 points, or 2.03 percent, at 1,304.89. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 75.17 points, or 2.65 percent, at 2,764.79.
The S&P 500 fell below it’s 50-day moving average, and analysts are eyeing the 200-day average at 1283.6 as an area of support. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have fallen for three straight days while the Dow fell for a fourth day. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
This is the market’s worse day in eight weeks. This big market selloff today wacked the RSI portfolio. What do we do now? The simple answer is that we stick with the discipline of the system. We have sell stops on all our holdings at the –1.0R levels. We also have alerts at the +2.0R levels. When this level is hit we will initiate –0.3R trailing profit stops. I have tested the RSI methodology throughout some of the worse market selloffs and it hasn’t blown up. Yes, it can be gut wrenching, but RSI will survive. Right now we are experiencing a pretty sharp drawdown but it isn’t even close to 10%. Of our twelve current positions, only four are profitable and another day like today could easily see two or three positions stopped out for a loss. We have to live with that reality and not panic out. It pays to sit tight.
Well, after the close, RSI issued a buy signal:
- Buy 743 shares iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Mkt Idx (EWW)
This caught me flatfooted but let’s take a look at it. It was one of the few ETFs that were up today. It is showing great volume and good money flow. Looks like a winner to me.
Catch you later.
Debt standoff pressures stocks, drives wary mood – Bought RSI’s prior hero AGQ July 25, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in AGQ, EWT.add a comment
Stocks dipped on Monday as lawmakers remained in a standoff over raising the debt ceiling to avoid default, but investors were convinced a compromise will be reached before next week’s critical deadline.
Trading volume, however, was light even for a seasonally quiet period, suggesting investors were holding to the sidelines. In another sign of negative sentiment, declining stocks far outpaced advancers despite the day’s moderate declines.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 88.36 points, or 0.70 percent, at 12,592.80. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was down 7.59 points, or 0.56 percent, at 1,337.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 16.03 points, or 0.56 percent, at 2,842.80. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
The RSI portfolio was down about the same percentage as the market averages. I expect there will be a debt resolution in the coming days, no too soon for most investors.
This weekend I had an opportunity to review some of RSI’s past recommendations. AGQ looked appealing from several technical prospectives and I liked what I saw. It also didn’t hurt that an independent source I follow highlighted this ETF. Earlier this year RSI picked AGQ, we made a quick +2.0R profit and then it picked it again with the same results. Looking at a chart shows that after a sharp selloff in late April, the downtrend was reversed around the first of this month. The parameters are:
- Buy 30 shares ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) for each $1,000 of risk. Set stop loss at –1.0R and trigger a 0.3R trailing profit stop when it reaches a +2.0R level.
This month marks the one year holding period for iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT). The holding is sitting at a +0.8R profit. I was toying with the idea of selling it, but I guess I should stick with it. It might not be dead money. Here is a one year chart for EWT.
There were no new RSI picks after the closing bell. I’ll catch you later.
Nasdaq ends up on chipmaker earnings – Took a flyer on GDX & EWJ July 22, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in EWJ, GDX.add a comment
Investors poured into tech shares on Friday as promising chipmaker earnings and optimism a solution was on the horizon for the U.S. debt stalemate triggered a move into growth-oriented shares.
Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 42.95 points, or 0.34 percent, to end at 12,681.16. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was up 1.22 points, or 0.09 percent, at 1,345.02. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 24.40 points, or 0.86 percent, at 2,858.83.
For the week, the Dow ended up 1.6 percent, the S&P 500 gained 2.2 percent and the Nasdaq roe 2.5 percent. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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The RSI portfolio was up smartly today, outperforming the major averages. It was boosted by a 4.4% gain in Ultra Semiconductors – USD. Three positions had fractional percentage losses. Today I purchased both GDX and EWJ which were recently picked by RSI. I thought I got a good price on each. It will be instructive to see how they turn out.
Have a great weekend and I’ll catch you later.
U.S. debt news and euro debt agreement fuel rally – RSI picks iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ) … again July 21, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in EWJ.add a comment
Stocks climbed on Thursday as signs of progress on the U.S. debt talks and concrete action from Europe on its own debt crisis heartened investors.
But the biggest news was on a possible U.S. debt deal to save the United States from an unprecedented default.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 152.50 points, or 1.21 percent, to 12,724.41. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX rose 17.96 points, or 1.35 percent, to 1,343.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC advanced 20.20 points, or 0.72 percent, to 2,834.43. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
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Back last October RSi picked EWJ and today it again went back to the Japan well. Here is the pick:
- Buy 1151 shares iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ); Volatility = 3.20%
For the past several weeks EWJ has been in a well defined up-trending channel and RSI wants to hitch onto the up elevator. Apparently RSI thinks that Japan has put its troubles behind. Whatever, the market is favoring EWJ. I like it too and may buy it tomorrow.
Have a good day and I’ll catch you later.
Wall Street closes flat as debt worries offset earns – RSI picks gold miners (GDX) July 20, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in GDX.add a comment
Stocks closed near unchanged on Wednesday a day after Wall Street’s best rally since March, as the oncoming debt ceiling deadline overshadowed strong earnings from Apple Inc.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI lost 15.51 points, or 0.12 percent, at 12,571.91. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX shed 0.89 points, or 0.07 percent, at 1,325.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC fell 12.29 points, or 0.43 percent, at 2,814.23. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
The RSI portfolio took a bit of a hit today, but it was minor. After the market close, there was a new buy pick:
- Buy 108 shares Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX); Volatility = 6.13%
This past weekend I have been physically examining a large number of ETF charts, looking for potential buy candidates. Of the promising candidates the precious metals have been outstanding. I was glad to see this ETF on today’s buy list. My only problem with this pick is that it has been quite strong in the last three weeks and I would like to see some sort of a pullback before I buy it.
Catch you later.
Wall Street drops on global debt woes – Coffee ETN (JO) stopped out July 18, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in EWP, JO, USD.add a comment
Stocks dropped on Monday as bank shares bore the brunt of investor frustration over governments’ inability to solve debt crises in the United States and Europe.
With five days to go before President Barack Obama’s deadline for a debt ceiling deal and no agreement in sight, Republicans and Democrats were crafting a fallback plan to avert a U.S. default.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 94.57 points, or 0.76 percent, to 12,385.16. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX declined 10.70 points, or 0.81 percent, to 1,305.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC fell 24.69 points, or 0.89 percent, to 2,765.11. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
Well we didn’t keep JO very long. It dropped below its stop loss level and was sold for a –1.0R loss. That’s all part of the process and a necessary happening in this world of systematic investing/trading. The next one that is moving towards the stop loss level is the Spain ETF (EWP) followed by the Ultra-Semi (USD).
I’m still monitoring the three short RSI picks from last Thursday and Friday. They certainly look promising in this grim environment.
No new RSI buy signals today. Catch you later.
Google lifts Wall Street in otherwise rough week – RSI recommends ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil (SCO) July 15, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in SCO.add a comment
Google’s blowout quarter led the Nasdaq higher on Friday but mounting uncertainty about the government’s ability to reach a debt-reduction deal may keep investors at bay in the coming week.
The gains were a bright spot in a stretch dominated by selling that pushed the S&P 500 down in its worst week in five. Worries about U.S. and European government debt troubles put pressure on the market even as investors expect a batch of strong earnings next week.
For the week, the S&P 500 ended down 2.1 percent, while the Dow lost 1.4 percent and the Nasdaq fell 2.5 percent. . (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
After the bell, RSI picked the following:
- Buy 265 shares ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil (SCO); Volatility = 7.90%
SCO is trading at the low end of the uptrend channel. Monitor this to see if SCO moves back to the trend. This is a 2X fund, so it is quite volatile. Treat it with care.
Have a great weekend.
Stocks fall after Bernanke dims stimulus hopes – RSI likes short Mid Cap July 14, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in MYY, MZZ.add a comment
Stocks are closing lower after remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke dimmed hopes for a third round of bond-buying.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index is down 9 points, or 0.7 percent, to close at 1,309. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 54, or 0.4 percent, to 12,437. The Nasdaq composite fell 34, or 1.2 percent, to 2,763.
About four stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume was light at 3.8 billion. (commentary & photo courtesy of AP)
A tough day on the market forced RSI to pick tow short funds:
- Buy 1583 shares ProShares Short MidCap400 (MYY); Volatility = 2.08%
- Buy 587 shares ProShares UltraShort MidCap400 (MZZ); Volatility = 4.32%
Both these funds have started a new uptrend as the overall market has weakened. These might be attractive as a hedge against further market weakness. Might be worth taking a flyer.
Catch you later.
Europe and tech push Wall St to 3rd day of losses – RSI picks ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Metal ETN (RJZ) July 12, 2011
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in DBB, RJZ.add a comment
U.S. stocks closed lower for a third straight day on Tuesday as Europe’s fiscal woes and a weak start to tech earnings gave investors little reason to buy even after the recent losses.
Equities bounced briefly following release of the Fed’s minutes with comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting the possibility of more stimulative policies, but the move was short-lived as uncertainty over Europe kept investors away from beaten-down shares. On Monday, stocks posted their worst day in a month.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 58.88 points, or 0.47 percent, to 12,446.88 at the close. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX shed 5.85 points, or 0.44 percent, to 1,313.64. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 20.71 points, or 0.74 percent, to 2,781.91. (commentary & photo courtesy of Reuters)
Yes, today’s market action weighed on the RSI portfolio. Nothing close to the stop loss limits. However after the bell RSI picked the following:
- Buy 2702 shares ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Metal ETN (RJZ); Volatility = 3%
In the past we have owned other Rogers funds and they have done us well. Let’s take a look at this one. It is thinly traded and has a lot of chop in its price action. It appears to be breaking out to the upside. I would buy the breakout. We do own a metal fund, PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB) and it appears to be on the same general trajectory, so I have to decide if we need more exposure to metals.
Catch you later.
