Markets close flat – RSI picks Oil Services Holders (OIH) October 30, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in OIH.add a comment
Again it happened … the markets were flat and the RSI portfolio sported a nice gain. Examining today’s RSI performance shows good gains from GDX, PSP, AMJ, FXI and RJA indicating strong numbers from the gold miners, private equity, energy MLPs, foreign currency and the agriculture sectors. These areas are underrepresented by the usual US market indices. RSI isn’t about one day performance. However, it is instructive to understanding where there are divergences and what are the causes. In this case it demonstrates RSI’s strength.
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Friday’s RSI buy recommendation:
- Buy 55 shares Oil Services Holders (OIH); Stop = -$17.92 Target = +$53.76 Volatility = 6.03%
OIH is a “Holder” type of a fund that isn’t quite an ETF and not quite a CEF. I’m not quite sure if you can buy odd lot (such as 55 shares) or only multiples of round lots (100 share lots). Check with your broker to verify that this is still true. As you can see OIH is up on the higher end of the volatility scale, but nowhere as high as the double and triple leveraged ETFs. It has great volume, and money is moving into the fund. On the other hand, it is trading at the high end of its trading range and I would wait for a pullback before buying.
After the market closed on Friday I lost my internet service which was restored Saturday morning. Oh, the joys of country living. But is sure beats what’s in second place. Have a happy Halloween.
Mixed day on Wall St. – No RSI picks October 28, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in EWT, GDX, PSP.add a comment
Actually there were no picks both today and yesterday, which led to no blog yesterday. For today, the major market indices were plus and minus 0.2%. Rather mixed and flat. However the RSI portfolio rose 0.6% on the strength of GDX, EWT and PSP. Not a huge gain, but a gain nevertheless.
Due to the crush of time, I have to cut today’s blog short. I had hoped to review a couple of RSI’s past picks but that will have to wait until another day.
Catch you later … I’m headed on a scenic train ride tomorrow, wish me well.
Market ekes out a small gain – RSI likes iShares MSCI Spain Index (EWP) & CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) October 26, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in EWP, EWT, FXE, RJA.add a comment
And the RSI portfolio did likewise .. a tiny gain. But better than a loss.
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I want to take this time to discuss some portfolio performance observations. As we approach the end of the month we have been enjoying a nice bull market. Thus the RSI portfolio should reflect the rosy scenario and it indeed does just that. In the next few days I will review each RSI picks that were incorporated into the portfolio. I will not review the “holding funds” because they were not picked by RSI. They were selected by me to provide a bond like portfolio allocation and as a parking place for monies to be allocated to be reinvested with RSI’s picks.
The first fund for review is ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agriculture ETN (RJA) with some connection to the famous trader Jim Rogers. RJA was purchased on 08/19/10 and today it has risen 17.62%. While this gain is great, it still has a way to go to gain +2R. The chart below shows the buy arrow in August.
The next fund to review is iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT) that was added to the RSI portfolio on July 21, 2010. It has gained 13.33% and it appears to have recovered and doing well with the decline of the US dollar. This ETF gives a good example of how the RSI trading works. When RJA was purchased in July a stop loss of –1R was placed and a +2R alert was also set. Neither of these two price levels were triggered since the position was initiated. I could have easily panicked and sold out on those two corrections. A good object lesson.
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And now for today’s RSI picks:
- Buy 181 shares iShares MSCI Spain Index (EWP); Stop = -$5.51 Target = +$16.53 Volatility = 5.18%
- Buy 128 shares CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE); Stop = -$7.76 Target = +$23.29 Volatility = 2.25%
Here we have the pick of a higher volatility single country European fund and a lower volatility European currency fund. Let’s look at EWP first. It has been moving up in a narrow range channel and beating the market since late August. Money flow is positive, but falling off lately. If you are interested in theis fund, wait until it bonces off the lower channel line.
Next is FXE which tracks the Euro. On all fronts it definitely doesn’t look like a strong fund. It isn’t beating the market and the money is falling off. It has bounced off its upper trendline and appears to be headed lower. There must be some important factor that RSI likes that I’m missing. Time will decide that question.
Goodnight and I’ll catch you later.
An up day – RSI picks iShares Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Ex Index (IEO) October 25, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in IEO.add a comment
The market continues its wining ways with a respectable gain, not big but decent. The RSI portfolio outperformed all three major market averages today capitalizing on its foreign holdings, gold miners, and agriculture. Good job!
RSI generated the following buy signal after the market close:
- Buy 155 shares iShares Dow Jones US Oil & Gas Ex Index (IEO); Stop = -$6.44 Target = +$19.31 Volatility = 4.79%
IEO has been in a downtrend which ended in late September. It has made a recent correction down to its lower channel trendline. Money has been flowing into this ETF which makes me believe that this out-of-favor sector may be on the move once again. Looks okay to buy at this price.
Catch you later.
Good weekly ending – RSI picks iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector (IYF) & PowerShares Water Resources (PHO) October 22, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in IYF, PHO, XLE.add a comment
This is the third week in a row that the market has ended the week on a positive note. The RSI portfolio has been also gaining ground.
Yes, I haven’t published this blog in a few days because RSI has been silent. Today I purchased a one-R position in Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) to round out the RSI portfolio and deploy the last of the cash reserves. RSI picked XLE last month and now it has apparently completed a dip, so I bought it.
Today RSI picked the following:
- Buy 176 shares iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector (IYF); Stop = -$5.67 Target = +$17.02 Volatility = 4.26%
- Buy 469 shares PowerShares Water Resources (PHO); Stop = -$2.13 Target = +$6.39 Volatility = 4.85%
At first glance I thought RSI had previously picked these two, but they were other water and financial picks and not these.
IYF has been in a downtrend and it may be on a path to reverse that trend. It has been underperforming the market and money isn’t flowing into it, so be patient. Any breakout above %54.00 may signal a recovery and an opportunity to buy.
PHO is showing signs of good strength. It has been in a strong uptrend and has completed a dip. It is handily beating the market and money has been flowing in. Now is the time to buy.
Well that’s about it. Have a great weekend and I’ll catch you later.
Downdraft in the markets – RSI likes iShares S&P Global Energy (IXC) & SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) October 19, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in IXC, XSD.add a comment
Today saw the stock market tumble with the worse drop in two months. The Dow off 1.48%, S&P 500 off 1.58% and the NASDAQ down 1.76%. The RSI portfolio followed suit with a 1.4% loss. There were all red for today’s action but still all green for the holdings. Now will be an acid test to see if discipline will rule out over fear of loss. Will a new buying opportunity be in the wings? We shall see. Remember it is all about process. Follow the system and the rewards will be forthcoming. RSI has proven its worth in this up leg and now we shall test its performance on the down slope. It’s diversified portfolio saw everything drop today. We saw the same thing happen in September 2008.
Well, in spite of the selloff, RSI had two picks:
- Buy 277 shares iShares S&P Global Energy (IXC); Stop = -$3.61 Target = +$10.83 Volatility = 4.15%
- Buy 171 shares SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD); Stop = -$5.83 Target = +$17.49 Volatility = 5.16%
IXC is another RSI energy, but this one is a global fund. Its chart is good and I expect that when it recovers from this selloff it might be a good addition to ones portfolio. It was off 2.60% today.
XSD is a semiconductor fund and this industry sector has been in a downtrend that reversed in late August. Money is flowing into this sector that hasn’t been reflected in its price. This might be a good candidate when the correction plays out.
Catch you later.
Good day in the market – Sold TLT; RSI picks four ETFs October 18, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in EWJ, EWQ, EZU, iye, TLT.add a comment
The market averages were up nicely today. The RSI portfolio was up nicely too, which is good for the soul. There was no blog post Friday since RSI failed to make any picks. Last week I sold the position in TLT for a nice profit. It didn’t make it to the trailing stop alert level, so in essence I sold it before its time. I don’t like to use discretion trading, but I believe this time bending of the rules is warranted.
Today, RSI generated several buy signals:
- Buy 1245 shares iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ); Stop = -$0.80 Target = +$2.41 Volatility = 3.14%
- Buy 339 shares iShares MSCI France Index (EWQ); Stop = -$2.94 Target = +$8.83 Volatility = 4.63%
- Buy 233 shares iShares MSCI EMU Index (EZU); Stop = -$4.27 Target = +$12.82 Volatility = 4.50%
- Buy 308 shares iShares Dow Jones US Energy (IYE); Stop = -$3.24 Target = +$9.72 Volatility = 3.76%
Since there so many picks, I will show all four charts without a lot of comments.
Since the sale of TLT, I have some funds to deploy. Of these four funds I prefer IYE because of RSI portfolio diversification. It has been in a strong uptrend and I will have to wait for a price pause. It can’t hurt to wait for a “buy on the dip” opportunity …. unless it keeps on climbing. I have been monitoring several of RSI’s picks in the energy sector. There are any good buy recommendations to chose from.
Catch you later.
Market loss today; RSI picks VDE, VFH & XLE October 14, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in VDE, VFH, XLE.add a comment
Market off after five sessions of gains. Not to be concerned, RSI picks the following:
- Buy 116 shares Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE); Stop = -$8.60 Target = +$25.79 Volatility = 3.94%
- Buy 326 shares Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH); Stop = -$3.06 Target = +$9.18 Volatility = 4.06%
- Buy 162 shares Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE); Stop = -$6.17 Target = +$18.52 Volatility = 4.18%
Two energy and a financial ETF, and interesting trio. Let’s look at them up close:
VDE invests in a range of companies in the energy sector. The energy sector is in an uptrend after experiencing a period of a long decline. At present VDE is beating the market and is experiencing good money inflow. Wait for a pullback to buy.
VFH invests in financial stocks which has been a beaten down sector. This sector could be on the way out of the narrow range it has been stuck. It currently is underperforming the market but money is now flowing in. Wait for it to break out of its range.
Finally we have another energy fund XLE. The chart is very similar to VDE so the same comments apply, however this fund trades on huge volume.
There you have it .. catch you later.
Good up market today – RSI picks PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest (DBV) October 13, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in DBV.add a comment
The market turned in a nice gain today and likewise the RSI portfolio had a very nice day too. I didn’t blog yesterday since when I ran RSI after the market close it had no new selections to buy and there were no new sales.
Moving on to today’s pick:
- Buy 643 shares PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest (DBV); Stop = -$1.55 Target = +$4.66 Volatility = 2.65%
DBV is a fund of the times with all the buzz about the weakness of the dollar and the ascendency of foreign currencies. It is likely that this ETF can breakout of its range bounded by $22 to $23.50 and beat the general market. Fund flow has been good. While it traded on low volume today, its three month average is over 150,000 shares per day. For all the factors cited, this might be a surprise pick.
Catch you later.
Flat for the market –RSI picks iShares MSCI EAFE Value Index (EFV) October 11, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in EFV.add a comment
The market didn’t go anywhere today, but that didn’t keep RSI form picking another foreign ETF. The pick:
- Buy 211 shares of iShares MSCI EAFE Value Index (EFV); Stop = -$4.72 Target = +$14.16 Volatility = 3.74%
EVF has foreign stock holdings on a worldwide basis and as often with value stocks it pays a nice yield of 3.34%. This fund should do well in the context for an economic worldwide recovery. The only negative is that EFV has been underperforming the US market (Magenta line slopes down), but that could change. Money is flowing into the fund (Cyan line sloping up) which indicates investor interest since early July. If you want to include foreign value in your portfolio, this is a good fund to consider.
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A quick note on the chart lines … I manually add the channel lines, red and green, to the StockCharts.com charts. I use the “eyeballing” method of placing the lines. I just thought you should know that they are my educated guess and not something generated by RSI.
Catch you later.
