A good September ends with RSI picking EFA & DGP September 30, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in DGP, EFA.add a comment
The markets were off today, but overall the month was good for those investors in the market and likewise for the RSI portfolio.
Okay, RSI has three recommendation today:
- Buy 186 shares iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA); Stop = -$5.37 Target = +$16.11 Volatility = 3.91%
- Buy 636 shares PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP); Stop = -$1.57 Target = +$3.14 Volatility = 4.29%
These two picks are generated by two separate modules and that is why they look in conflict. All I can say is that isn’t unexpected. I’ll call it a “fielders choice”. Let’s look at the charts.
EFA has a huge market following and represents “the foreign ETF”. It looks as it is running out of steam, but any pullback should be a good entry point. The rising magenta means it its beating the US market and the cyan line represents money flow into this sector. That is good enough for me.
DGP looks like a space launch. It is reinforced by positive accumulation and it is beating the market. Although it is a double leveraged fund, it sports a modest 4.3% volatility reading. I like this pick and I would buy this on a pullback.
Catch you later.
An okay day for the market; RSI picks two September 28, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in EWK, IGE.add a comment
And the picks keep on coming. RSI has been on a buying binge over these past few weeks. I think it signifies a major market turning point. We shall see if this is the case in the fullness of time. The RSI portfolio had another good day today with five funds sporting 1% plus gains and only one with a 1% loss. Thirteen winners and only two with losses. It doesn’t get much better than this. I have to remember that even a diversified portfolio looks outstanding in a rising market. I don’t ever forget that there is always a downtrend out there in the future.
Okay, let’s look at RSI’s picks for today.
- Buy 731 shares iShares MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx (EWK); Stop = -$1.37 Target = +$4.10 Volatility = 4.11%
- Buy 273 shares iShares S&P North Amer Natural Resources (IGE); Stop = -$3.65 Target = +$10.96 Volatility = 4.24%
And their charts:
EWK is a single country ETF that follows the Belgium index. It is trading at its upper channel line (green) and if you are interested, wait for a price retracement. Average volume is decent, but it had low volume today.
IGE invests in North American natural resources and it keeps up the theme of the materials sector. It likewise is trading at the high end of its range, so again wait for a pullback before purchasing.
Good hunting … catch you later.
RSI starts the week with agriculture & biotech picks September 27, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in DAG, IBB.add a comment
Although the market ended down today, RSI found some bright spots. It recommended:
- Buy 523 shares PowerShares DB Agriculture Dble Long ETN (DAG); Stop = -$1.91 Target = +$5.73 Volatility = 7.25%
- Buy 118 shares iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB); Stop = -$8.46 Target = +$25.37 Volatility = 3.92%
So let’s look at the charts:
DAG is a double leveraged long fund that trades the agriculture markets which are equal percentages of corn, wheat, soybean, and sugar futures contracts. It is structured as an Exchange Traded Note (ETN) that trades the physical commodity futures. Needless to say, it sports a 7.25% volatility and is risky. It has made a spectacular run since late June. But if you are inclined to make a risky investment, wait for a pullback and buy it on a dip … and good luck!
IBB has managed to outperform the overall market since early September (magenta line) and money is flowing into this fund (cyan line). Also this fund trades on high volume which is certainly a plus. This kind of performance indicates biotech is in favor and this might propel IBB higher. Again, wait for a pullback before investing in this fund.
Catch you later.
Swinging for the fences – RSI picks Europe, water & ultra-mid September 24, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in IEV, MVV, PIO.add a comment
I had a long discussion with a follower to this blog. It started with his question that exemplified his interest in following RSI. He is confusion as to which of the RSI picks for him to select. I commented that he doesn’t have to swing at every pitch. Meaning, of course, that he has full discretion to pick and choose. As I was running down the many factors he should use, I soon realized that he was looking at RSI’s picks as a silver bullets. He wasn’t interested in swinging at every pitch but rather he was swinging for the fences. I tried to explain to him that RSI is designed for slow and steady rather than hitting homeruns. I think I got through to him
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The markets had a great day today to close out a great week. RSI keeps on with its picks:
- Buy 242 shares iShares S&P Europe 350 Index (IEV); Stop = -$4.13 Target = +$12.39 Volatility = 4.33%
- Buy 622 shares PowerShares Global Water (PIO); Stop = -$1.61 Target = +$4.82 Volatility = 3.67%
- Buy 263 shares ProShares Ultra MidCap400 (MVV); Stop = -$3.79 Target = +$7.58 Volatility = 8.14%
And their charts:
IEV is an okay Europe fund, but it is vastly underperforming the overall market. I would avoid it. Notice I’ve added a new line for accumulation/distribution which measures the money flow into and out of the funds.
PIO has previously been picked by RSI. Since then it has performed well. If you want to add this to your portfolio, wait for a pullback.
Lastly we have MVV, which is a twice leveraged fund. It sports a high volatility of 8.14%, so use great care with this. Again, wait for a pullback, which just might be underway.
Have a great weekend.
Another market index pick & world index September 23, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in ACWX, MDY.add a comment
Another couple of picks today:
- Buy 270 shares iShares MSCI ACWI ex US Index (ACWX); Stop = -$3.69 Target = +$11.08 Volatility = 3.65%
- Buy 166 shares SPDR S&P MidCap 400 (MDY); Stop = -$5.99 Target = +$11.98 Volatility = 4.25%
ACWX is a world index fund minus the US. RSI recently picked its sister fund that included the US. Confusing … right. A bit thinly traded but it is beating the overall market. Wait for a pullback if you are inclined to buy this one.
MDY is the mid-cap iconic index that sports a lot of volume. Again, wait for a pullback opportunity.
Catch you later.
(Addendum) RSI keeps the picks coming with many buys September 23, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in DIA, QLD, QQQQ, SPY, SSO.add a comment
As I stated in Wednesday’s Blog, there were five new RSI picks that I didn’t have the opportunity to cover. This entry covers them.
Let’s look at the new picks:
- Buy 387 shares ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO); Stop = -$2.58 Target = +$5.16 Volatility = 6.63%
- Buy 215 shares ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD); Stop = -$4.63 Target = +$9.27 Volatility = 7.10%
- Buy 544 shares PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ); Stop = -$1.84 Target = +$3.68 Volatility = 3.77%
- Buy 305 shares SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA); Stop = -$3.28 Target = +$6.56 Volatility = 3.05%
- Buy 255 shares SPDR S&P 500 (SPY); Stop = -$3.92 Target = +$7.83 Volatility = 3.45%
Here are some interesting observations that apply to all:
- They represent the overall US market
- They favor large capitalization stocks
- They include Ultra, that is double leveraged, funds
- They are all trading at the high end of their price channels
- They all were picks from the same module that tracks money flow
If you run the numbers, you will find that the number of shares times the fund price is much greater that position size generated by other RSI modules. This is a function of RSI’s “equal risk” strategy that risks one R per position. Thus a much smaller adverse price change would cause a stop loss sell. All this is perfectly clear, I presume.
Their charts follow:
As mentioned earlier these charts illustrate the fact they are trading at the high end of their price channel. Wait for a correction and then buy that dip.
Catch you later.
RSI keeps the picks coming with many buys September 22, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in XBI, XOP.add a comment
I thought that today’s wimpy market action would subdue RSI, however that wasn’t the case as it made the following picks:
- Buy 151 shares SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI); Stop = -$6.60 Target = +$19.81 Volatility = 4.55%
- Buy 184 shares SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Prod (XOP); Stop = -$5.42 Target = +$16.26 Volatility = 5.34%
These two sectors haven’t been in RSI’s themes for quite a long time. And now they are back, suggesting a shift in emphasis … maybe?
Next are the charts.
XBI has an extended rally, so it would be wise to wait for a pullback before buying this fund. Another concern is it’s lower average volume, so mind the bid/ask spread.
XOP is a different kettle of fish that has been in a long downtrend. And it has been under performing the market. So this fund has the potential of being a “catch the falling knife” candidate. It might be a turnaround candidate if it breaks through the upper trendline and establishes a change in trend.
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Late breaking results … too late to analyze them, but here are more buys: SSO, QLD, QQQQ, DIA, & SPY I’ll cover them tomorrow.
Well, that’s it for today .. catch you later.
Portfolio Cleanup; bought IWT & PSP – sold DOG & VXZ; RSI has 4 new picks September 21, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in DOG, EFG, PSP, VEA, VGK, VGT, VXZ.add a comment
Over the past several days I have been evaluating RSI’s recent picks. I also have been assessing RSI’s current portfolio. First the recent performance of my two counter-trend funds, ProShares Short Dow30 (DOG) and iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ), have been somewhat languishing and I sold them today. Yes, I know I didn’t follow my system, but I wanted to put the money to use in other investments. With the proceeds I purchased PowerShares Listed Private Equity (PSP) and iShares Dow Jones US Technology (IYW). Why these two? Both funds are presently beating the general market. Also they don’t correlate with any of the current RSI portfolio holdings. So that was my rationale, let’s look at their charts.
This fund has been in a shallow downtrend that has recently been reversed with a healthy breakout. This could be signaling a reversal of fortune. We shall see.
Please note the price bar during the May 6th flash crash. Pretty sobering price shock.
PSP‘s recent move has had a pause and then a takeoff. The RSI portfolio doesn’t have "private equity" exposure, so this pick fills that void. Also it pays a respectable 4.02% yield, which in today’s environment isn’t a bad deal.
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More buy RSI buy signals today:
- Buy 193 shares iShares MSCI EAFE Growth Index (EFG); Stop = -$5.16 Target = +$15.49 Volatility = 3.69%
- Buy 294 shares Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA); Stop = -$3.39 Target = +$10.17 Volatility = 3.95%
- Buy 192 shares Vanguard European ETF (VGK); Stop = -$5.20 Target = +$15.60 Volatility = 4.31%
- Buy 189 shares Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT); Stop = -$5.28 Target = +$15.85 Volatility = 3.85%
There is a lot here today, so let’s look at the charts.
EFG is an international growth fund that trades a bit on the thin side. The flash crash did a number on this fund too.
VEA is much more heavily treaded and moving smartly up. You can buy it at this juncture or wait for a dip.
The same can be said for VGK. Looks good to me.
VGT is another technology fund that has a demonstrable change in trend. It looks great to me.
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As the summer rolls to an end and we approach October, there is an important event ahead. October 20th marks the 1st anniversary of RSI Mark II trading. I have a lot of interesting observations that I will share with you. Look for this sometime after Oct. 20th.
Catch you later.
RSI goes with an All Country World Index September 20, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in ACWI.add a comment
That’s right, RSI’s latest selection is an All Country World Index fund. Here it is:
- Buy 256 shares iShares MSCI ACWI Index (ACWI); Stop = -$3.91 Target = +$11.72 Volatility = 3.64%
ACWI is an interesting pick. It is in a nice uptrend since the late August and is following the upward channel. It has decent volume and volatility. My only concern is that the down-sloping violet line on the second chart indicates this fund is underperforming the general market. Also its holdings are large cap, mostly US stocks. This isn’t my cup of tea, but would make a great core holding for one’s portfolio. It’s worth a closer look.
Catch you later.
RSI picks four – IJS, PSP, SCHX & UYM September 17, 2010
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in IJS, PSP, SCHX, UYM.add a comment
I just got back from an Oktoberfest happening, so let’s get on with RSI picks .. and here they are:
- Buy 116 shares iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index (IJS); Stop = -$8.60 Target = +$25.79 Volatility = 5.68%
- Buy 1012 shares PowerShares Listed Private Equity (PSP); Stop = -$0.99 Target = +$2.96 Volatility = 4.23%
- Buy 431 shares Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF (SCHX); Stop = -$2.32 Target = +$6.95 Volatility = 3.46%
- Buy 128 shares ProShares Ultra Basic Materials (UYM); Stop = -$7.80 Target = +$23.39 Volatility = 9.17%
And their charts:
All four of these picks are bumping up to their upper trendline. Wait for pullbacks and then jump on them.
Have a great weekend .. catch you later.
