A QUARTER DEFINED BY HISTORIC WHIPLASH ON WALL ST. – RSI CHOOSES BONDS AND THE INTERNET March 31, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BSV, HHH, LQD.add a comment
Today in the market, Tuesday, March 31, 2009: The first quarter on Wall Street was so extreme it included a bear market and a bull market all its own — moves that sometimes take years or more. Now investors head for spring still unsure which side is in control.
From the second week of the year to early March, the Dow Jones industrial average lost more than a quarter of its value, plunging from just above 9,000 to below 6,550. Retirement accounts were suddenly worth half what they were in 2007.
Then came a rally that left investors’ heads spinning. Over just 13 trading days, the Dow soared 21 percent, bouncing back almost to 8,000.
When the dust settled, the stock market was left with its sixth straight quarter of declines, the first time that’s happened since 1969 and 1970. For the Dow, it was the worst start to the year since 1939. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- BSV – Vanguard Short-Term Bond
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- LQD – iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- HHH – Internet Holders
ETF/CEF Discussion: As the headlines points out, this was quite a volatile quarter. Glad it has passed, but what of the future? Who knows? RSI is taking a conservative bent and has picked only three funds today. They are probably safe bets. The HHH ETF trades on low volume so be warned. The charts some some interesting price behavior. BSV holds short term US Treasury Notes and its chart reflects a low volatility price action. It pays a 2.94% yield. LQD holds corporate bonds and its price chart reflects the ups and downs of the corporate stock market and it yields 6.20% yield. Both these charts look to me as having good upside potential. The Internet fund is following a classic technical chart pattern of higher highs and higher lows. To market technicians this is magical, although I would add that the light volume sheds a bit of worry on its case.
I don’t have much more to say except I hope you weathered through this past quarter well and I hope you are prepared for another exciting quarter ahead.
Catch you tomorrow.
STOCKS TUMBLE AS AUTOMAKER PLANS ARE REJECTED – RSI FLEES TO SHORT-TERM BOND AND J-YEN FUNDS March 30, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BSV, FXY.add a comment
Today in the market, Monday, March 30, 2009: Wall Street’s March rally is on hold after the White House rejected turnaround plans from General Motors Corp. and Chrysler and gave investors an economic reality check.
Major indexes fell about 3 percent Monday, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which lost about 254 points but finished well off its lows. Financial stocks weighed heavily on the market amid worries that banks will need fresh injections of capital. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- FXY CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust
ETF/CEF Discussion: An ugly day with lots of negatives and investor fear depressing most all of the markets, except for the bond market. RSI saw the carnage and picked two funds that represent a flight to safety. What more can I say? I feel that the relentless bear market downtrend continues despite this recent rally and there will be more carnage to come. Please be careful in these difficult times.
Catch you tomorrow.
PROFIT-TAKING, BANK CAUTION HALT MARKET RUN-UP – SLIM PICKINGS FOR RSI March 27, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in GBF, VKQ.add a comment
Today in the market, Friday, March 27, 2009: Wall Street capped a strong week on a down note on Friday as investors booked profits in the wake of the recent upward surge and bank shares dropped after bank executives indicated March had been a tougher month for the industry than the previous two.
Trading volume was moderate on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.44 billion shares changing hands, below last year’s estimated daily average of 1.49 billion. On Nasdaq, about 2.09 billion shares traded, below last year’s daily average of 2.28 billion.
Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 2,324 to 720 while decliners beat advancers on the Nasdaq by about 2,055 to 658.
(headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- GBF – iShares Lehman Government/Credit Bond Fund
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- VKQ – Van Kampen Municipal Trust
ETF/CEF Discussion: Despite the good week the profit takers slowed the recent advance. RSI didn’t think much about today’s market action and came up with two bond funds. Although slim pickings, these are two good choices, so give them a look as potential candidates for your consideration. A word of caution, GBF trades on very low volume (less than 4,000 shares today), so be careful. VKQ pays a nice yield of 7.8%, but its expense ratio is a pricey 2%. So be forewarned. Catch you Monday and have a good weekend.
DOW HITS 6-WEEK HIGH ON RELIEF OVER EARNINGS – RSI LIKES BOND & INCOME FUNDS March 26, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BIV, BND, CSP, GDX, HYB, NCA, NPI, SHY.add a comment
Today in the market, Thursday, March 26, 2009: This time, it was the consumer who had Wall Street rallying. Better-than-expected earnings from big consumer brands Best Buy, ConAgra Foods Inc. and Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. sent the Dow Jones industrial average up 174 points Thursday to its highest level in six weeks. It has surged 21 percent since hitting a nearly 12-year low on March 9. And the technology-dominated Nasdaq composite index is now up 0.63 percent for 2009.
Strong demand for government debt at the Treasury Department’s latest auction also lifted stocks by helping investors set aside recent nervousness about the government’s ability to fund its economic stimulus and financial bailout programs. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- BIV Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond
- BND Vanguard Total Bond Market
- SHY 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- CSP American Strat Inc Pt III
- NCA Nuveen Calif Muni Valu Fund
- NPI Nuveen Prem Incm Muni Fund
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- HYB New America High Incm Fund
ETF/CEF Discussion: Well, I’m quite surprised. With such a strong day, I expected more form RSI beside a few bond and income funds, but that’s what we got today. Is there a hidden message here? Who knows with artificial intelligence? Anyway all I know is that these funds have potential upside possibilities. So give them a look and remember to check the expense ratios on the CEFs.
FYI – I own SHY in my IRA portfolio. I purchased a position in GDX today. RSI last recommended GDX on March 18th.
Catch you tomorrow for the close of the trading week.
STOCKS MANAGE MODERATE GAIN AFTER ERRATIC SESSION – RSI PICKS GOLD, HEALTHCARE, INCOME AND THAI FUNDS March 25, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in CEF, DHF, GTU, IHF, JRO, NSL, TTF.add a comment
Today in the market, Wednesday, March 25, 2009: Wall Street has managed a moderate gain after an attack of nerves had investors giving back a big early advance and then barreling back into the market right before the close.
Trading was extremely erratic — the Dow Jones industrials rose as much as 203 points in early trading in response to upbeat economic data, then fell nearly 110 during the afternoon before closing up 90. Analysts said weak demand during an auction of government debt stirred up worries about how easily Washington will be able to raise money to fund its economic rescue program. The fear in the market is that the government might not be able to easily raise the hundreds of billions of dollars it needs.
The day shows how fragile Wall Street remains despite a two-week rally that saw the Dow regain more than 1,000 points. The market was pulled in different by opposing forces Wednesday that led to choppy trading — which may well be the pattern for stocks going forward. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- CEF – Central Fund of Canada Ltd.
- DHF – Dreyfus Hi Yield Strategies Fund
- GTU – Central Gold-Trust
- IHF – iShares Dow Jones U.S. Healthcare Providers
- JRO – Nuveen Floating Rate Income Opportunity Fund
- NSL – Nuveen Senior Income Fund
- TTF – Thai Fund, Inc.
ETF/CEF Discussion: With the rollercoaster ride today it was a wonder that RSI made any sense out of this market. With that said, RSI did make a few high volatility selections in many diverse areas. Many of these are closed end funds, so check out the expense ratios during your due diligence. For me some of them are too high relative to the risk. Remember the risk reward ratio? So please use care.
Catch you tomorrow.
WALL STREET GIVES UP SOME GROUND AFTER HUGE GAINS – RSI LIKES MUNI BOND FUNDS March 24, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BLE, BNA, NCA.add a comment
Today in the market, Tuesday, March 24, 2009: A stock drop is never reassuring — except when it could have been worse.
The Dow Jones industrial average shed 115 points, or 1.5 percent on Tuesday. But it also held onto 382 of the 498 points it racked up a day earlier.
Anyone with a 401(k) would have liked to see the rally continue. Market analysts said, though, that a pullback was expected given the massive gains Wall Street logged the day before when the government released plans lift bad loans off banks’ books.
“We’ll take that trading pattern any time,” said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. He said he came into work anticipating the Dow to drop between 1 percent and 2 percent Tuesday after the index jumped 6.8 percent Monday — its biggest gain since late October.
The Dow was up more than 1,200 points after hitting nearly 12-year lows on March 9, and there was little in a way of positive economic or corporate data Tuesday to lift stocks further. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- BNA Blackrock N A Govt Incm
- NCA Nuveen Calif Muni Valu Fund
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- BLE BlackRock Muni Income Fund
ETF/CEF Discussion: With a weak market today RSI has answered with conservative picks in the municipal/government bond fund space. Maybe this is a smart move in light of all the uncertainty that is swirling around the markets. They are worth your consideration.
Catch you tomorrow.
DOW UP NEARLY 500 ON BANK PLAN, RISE IN HOME SALES – RSI GOES FOR INCOME, CHINA, AND REAL ESTATE FUNDS March 23, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BIL, CAF, CHN, EVG, EVV, FCT, GVI, HRP, NCV, VTA.add a comment
Today in the market, Monday, March 23, 2009: Wall Street got the news it wanted on the economy’s biggest problems — banks and housing — and celebrated by hurtling the Dow Jones industrials up nearly 500 points. Investors added rocket fuel Monday to a two-week-old advance, cheering the government’s plan to help banks remove bad assets from their books and also welcoming a report showing a surprising increase in home sales. Major stock indicators surged more than 6 percent, including the Dow, which had its biggest percentage gain since October.
Although analysts were still hesitant to say Wall Street is squarely on its way to recovery after the collapse that began last fall, they said the banking and housing news bolstered the belief that the economy is starting to heal.
the Dow rose 497.48, or 6.8 percent, to 7,775.86, its highest finish since Feb. 13. It was the biggest point gain for the blue chips since Nov. 13 when they rose 552 points and the biggest percentage gain since Oct. 28. when they rose 10.9 percent.
Broader stock indicators also surged. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 54.38, or 7.1 percent, to 822.92, crossing the psychological milepost of 800. The Nasdaq composite index rose 98.50, or 6.8 percent, to 1,555.77. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- BIL – SPDR Lehman 1-3 T-Bill
- GVI – iShares Lehman Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Fund
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- EVG – Eaton Vance Short Duration Diversified Income Fund
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- CAF – Morgan Stanley A Share Fund
- CHN – China Fund, Inc.
- EVV – Eaton Vance Limited Duration Income Fund
- FCT – First Trust/Four Corners Senior Floating Rate Income Fund II
- HRP – Hrpt Properties Trust
- NCV – Nicholas Applegate Conv&Income Fund
- VTA – Van Kampen Dynamic Credit Opportunities Fund
ETF/CEF Discussion: A huge up day for the market and RSI cheered along the upward progress. Is this a “bear trap” or is the rally for real? I’m beginning to wonder. Time will tell. As for today, RSI picked a rather conservative set of funds, although many soared today. The two Chinese funds put in good gains (FYI – I own CAF) and HRP jumped over 24% today, so don’t chase the big up moves but wait for pullbacks. HRP has been picked several times in the past few weeks; I hope someone out there listened to RSI on this fund pick. All in all this list is not what you hear touted from the financial media. This is a contrary voice in the darkness.
Catch you tomorrow.
STOCKS FALL, BUT STILL LOG SECOND WEEK OF GAINS – RSI PICKS T-BILL, MUNI AND SHORT FUNDS March 20, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BIL, NCA, NPI, QID.add a comment
Today in the market, Friday, March 20, 2009: Wall Street’s mid-March rally is on hold, but the Dow Jones industrial average still managed its first two-week gain in close to a year.
After starting Friday mixed, stocks veered lower in the afternoon as financial shares fell and investors collected profits from the advance that saw the Dow rise 14 percent over seven trading days. One reason for the market’s pause after such a big surge: It ran out of upbeat economic and corporate news the past two days.
The major indexes did eke out a gain for the week. The Fed jolted the market this week with an announcement of plans to buy hundreds of billions of dollars worth of debt securities in hopes of reviving lending. Stocks initially jumped on Wednesday when the plans were announced but then fell Thursday and Friday as investors became concerned that the huge injection of money into the economy could cause inflation. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- BIL – SPDR Lehman 1-3 T-Bill
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- NCA – Nuveen Calif Muni Valu Fund
- NPI – Nuveen Prem Incm Muni Fund
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- QID – ProShares Ultra Short QQQ
ETF/CEF Discussion: An up week is always good to see and two up weeks in a row is even doubly better. However, RSI isn’t impressed and picked some conservative funds plus a speculative ultra-short fund. It also picked several high income CEFs that had horrible expensive ratios, in the area of 3%. No junk funds are worth a 3% hit. The two Nuveen funds pay a good tax free yield plus have reasonable expenses. They are worth a look for tax free investors.
Have a great weekend.
STOCK RALLY FADES AS INVESTORS ASSESS FED MOVES – RSI PICKS GOLD AND BOND FUNDS March 19, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in AWF, BLV, CEF, GLD, IAU, LQD.add a comment
Today in the market, Thursday, March 19, 2009: Investors had a change of heart about the Federal Reserve’s plans to buy Treasury bonds and doused Wall Street’s two-week-old rally.
Banking and other financial shares pulled the market lower Thursday as investors worried the the Fed’s plan would hurt the dollar and revive inflation. But energy stocks rose, getting a lift from soaring crude oil prices.
The retreat came a day after stocks surged in reaction to the Fed’s aggressive plans to pump more than $1 trillion into the financial system by buying Treasury bonds and stepping up its purchases of other debt securities. The aim is to lower borrowing rates and stimulate lending. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- BLV – Vanguard Long-Term Bond
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- GLD – streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares
- IAU – iShares COMEX Gold Trust
- LQD – iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- AWF – Alliance Wrld Dlr Govt II
- CEF – Central Fund of Canada Ltd.
ETF/CEF Discussion: With a subdued/down day RSI managed to find some sectors that are doing well and RSI expects them to do well into the future. The one closed end fund is AWF which has some interesting numbers. It has a P/Y/E of -016.03/14.32/1.10 which isn’t too shabby. Plus the fund invests in high yield, high risk sovereign debt which makes for exciting prospects. This pick might be worth the gamble of betting on a foreign economic turnaround. And of course the gold fund picks are bets on the US government depressing the value of the US dollar and hence appreciating gold assets. We shall see.
Catch you tomorrow.
FED LAUNCHES BOLD $1.2T EFFORT TO REVIVE ECONOMY – RSI PICKS LOTS OF BOND, FOREIGN CURRENCY, GOLD & METALS FUNDS March 18, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in agg, ASA, BIV, BND, BSV, CAF, CSJ, CSP, EAD, ESD, EVV, FXF, FXY, GBF, GDX, GTU, HRP, HYG, IEF, IEI, MBB, MIN, NCV, SHY, SLX, TIP, TLT, VTA, XME.1 comment so far
Today in the market, Wednesday, March 18, 2009: With the country sinking deeper into recession, the Federal Reserve launched a bold $1.2 trillion effort Wednesday to lower rates on mortgages and other consumer debt, spur spending and revive the economy. To do so, the Fed will spend up to $300 billion to buy long-term government bonds and an additional $750 billion in mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Wall Street was buoyed. The Dow Jones industrial average, which had been down earlier in the day, rose 90.88, or 1.2 percent, to 7,486.58. Broader indicators also gained.. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- AGG iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund
- BIV Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond
- BND Vanguard Total Bond Market
- BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond
- CSJ iShares Lehman 1-3 Year Credit Bond Fund
- GBF iShares Lehman Government/Credit Bond Fund
- IEI iShares Lehman 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
- MBB iShares Lehman MBS Fixed-Rate Bond Fund
- MIN MFS Intermediate Incm
- SHY 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares
- TIP iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- CSP American Strat Inc Pt III
- FXF Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust
- FXY CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust
- IEF 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares
- TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares
- GBF iShares Lehman Government/Credit Bond Fund
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- ASA ASA Ltd.
- CAF Morgan Stanley A Share Fund
- EAD Evergreen Income Advantage Fund, Inc.
- ESD Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund Inc.
- EVV Eaton Vance Limited Duration Income Fund
- GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners
- GTU Central Gold-Trust
- HRP Hrpt Properties Trust
- HYG iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund
- NCV Nicholas Applegate Conv&Income Fund
- SLX Market Vectors Steel
- VTA Van Kampen Dynamic Credit Opportunities Fund
- XME SPDR S&P Metals & Mining Index
ETF/CEF Discussion: A nice up day, coupled with a string of many good days has caused RSI to trip all over itself with a plethora of picks. Mostly form the bond arena, but also favoring the metals. This is a curious blend of sectors for RSI to pick as the winners going forward. Again, if you believe this uptrend is in place and the world economy is back on the mend, then by all means do consider these candidates.
Due to circumstances beyond my control I am not able to present the usual performance charts tonight. But be my guest and look at their charts.
Catch you tomorrow.
