S&P HITS 12-YEAR LOW AS U.S. STAKE IN CITI STIRS FEAR – RSI PULLS IN ITS HORNS February 27, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BIL, EFR.1 comment so far
Today in the market, Friday, February 27, 2009: stocks fell and the S&P 500 marked its worst-ever start to a year on Friday, after the government said it will take a large stake in Citigroup’s common shares, fanning fears it will increase its role in other major banks.
The decline closed out a grim month on Wall Street, with the Dow industrials hitting the lowest level since May 1997 as the blue-chip index fell for a sixth straight month. Data showing the U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate of 6.2 percent last quarter also weighed on the market.
Friday’s close marked the lowest level for the S&P 500 since December 1996. The S&P 500 is down 18.62 percent since the start of the year, its worst two-month start on record.
U.S. stocks have lost $10 trillion since peaking in October 2007. For the week, the Dow fell 4 percent, the S&P 500 slid 4.5 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 4.4 percent.
For the month, the S&P fell 11 percent and the Nasdaq shed 6.7 percent. The February decline for the S&P 500 was the second worst on record, after an 18.4 percent slide in 1933 during the height of the Great Depression. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- BIL – SPDR Lehman 1-3 T-Bill
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- EFR – Eaton Vance Senior Floating Rate Trust
ETF/CEF Discussion: With the market drop today confirming its relentless downward progress, RSI has pulled in its horns and made two conservative picks. The world economy is in the dumps and today I heard someone refer to the D word. You mean it’s worse than a recession?
Have a great weekend, and don’t let this market get you down.
WEAK HEALTH CARE STOCKS DRAG MARKET LOWER – RSI LIKES MUNI AND O & G FUNDS February 26, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BFK, BLE, HTR, JPZ, PXJ, VKQ, XES.add a comment
Today in the market, Thursday, February 26, 2009: This time, health care stocks bore the brunt of investors’ wrath. Health insurers and drug companies, some of the better performers on Wall Street lately, led the market lower Thursday after the White House proposed cutting payments to private insurance plans.
The day’s gyrations showed how fractious the market is, with investors ready to turn on stocks at the first whiff of bad news. Wall Street also extended a back-and-forth pattern that began earlier in the week. Market watchers say the sudden shifts reflect indecision among investors rather than big changes in their sentiment over the economy.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 88.81, or 1.2 percent, to 7,182.08, pulled down by stocks including drug maker Merck & Co., down $1.87, or 6.7 percent, at $26.04 and health products company Johnson & Johnson, off $1.52, or 2.8 percent, at $52.44. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 12.07, or 1.6 percent, to 752.83 and the Nasdaq composite index fell 33.96, or 2.4 percent, to 1,391.47. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- BFK – BlackRock Municipal Income Trust
- BLE – BlackRock Muni Income Fund
- HTR – Helios Total Return Fund, Inc.
- JPZ – Nuveen Equity Premium Income Fund
- PXJ – PowerShares Dynamic Oil & Gas Services Portfolio
- VKQ – Van Kampen Municipal Trust
- XES – SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Index
ETF/CEF Discussion: The market gyrations continue to cause RSI to only select high volatility funds. In today’s last there is a decided favoring of oil & gas and municipal income funds. Please note that the Helios and Van Kampen closed end funds (CEF) have an expense ratio of 2%. A bit rich for my liking, but someone may like them for their tax free yield. Also they will be beneficiaries of he recently passed stimulus plan via the payments to states. The O & G funds have been badly beaten down. Check their charts. Use caution since they may not be at the bottom.
Catch you tomorrow.
STOCKS END DOWN AS WEEK’S BACK-AND-FORTH CONTINUES – RSI PICKS NETWORK & TELECOM, SEMIS, AND INCOME FUNDS February 25, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in IGN, IGW, JHP, JTP, SMH, VOX, XSD.add a comment
Today in the market, Wednesday, February 25, 2009: Wall Street showed a little resilience as investors got answers to some of their questions about banks.
The major indexes closed down about 1 percent Wednesday but recovered from much steeper losses early in the day, continuing the volatile trading that has buffeted the market this week.
Stocks initially fell on growing pessimism about the banking industry and a home sales report that came in weaker than the market expected. But as the day wore on, some of the uncertainty about the troubled banking system lifted when the Treasury Department said it’s beginning to “stress test” the banks. The test will use two economic scenarios to measure banks’ health, and the process is expected to be done by the end of April. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- IGN – Network iShares S&P/GSTI Index Fund
- IGW – Semiconductor iShares S&P/GSTI Index Fund
- JHP – Nuveen Quality Preferred Income Fund 3
- JTP – Nuveen Quality Preferred Income Fund
- SMH – Semiconductor Holders
- VOX – Vanguard Telecommunication Services VIPERs
- XSD – SPDR S&P Semiconductor Index
ETF/CEF Discussion: Well I would say that volatility rules. The only funds RSI picked are of the high volatility variety. These are an interesting mix that is showing some of the market leaders such as the semiconductor funds. Use care with these since most are falling knives. Also the two Nuveen funds sport huge yields so treat them as suspect.
Catch you tomorrow.
STOCKS JUMP AFTER BERNANKE SAYS RECESSION MAY END THIS YEAR — RSI HAS LOTS OF PICKS; FOREIGN CURRENCIES, ASIAN EQUITIES & MORE February 24, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BBH, DBA, EWH, EWM, EWT, FXC, FXE, FXI, GXC, HHH, HRP, IHI, JQC, KCE, MSF, O, OIH, PGJ.add a comment
Today in the market, Tuesday, February 24, 2009: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has given Wall Street a double dose of reassurance. Bernanke told Congress Monday that the recession might end this year, and that regulators aren’t planning to nationalize banks. The news alleviated some of investors’ deepening worries about the economy and the banking system, and the Dow Jones industrial average, coming off its lowest levels since 1997, jumped about 250 points, or 3.5 percent. Other major stock indexes rose about 4 percent. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- BBH – Biotech Holders
- FXC – Currency Shares Canadian Dollar Trust
- FXE – Currency Shares Euro Trust
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- DBA – PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Agriculture Fund
- EWH – HongKong iShares
- EWM – Malaysia iShares
- EWT – Taiwan iShares
- FXI – iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25
- GXC – SPDR S&P China ETF
- HHH – Internet Holders
- HRP – Hrpt Properties Trust
- IHI – iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices
- JQC – Nuveen Multi-Strategy Income and Growth Fund 2
- KCE – SPDR KBW Capital Markets Index ETF
- MSF – Mgn Stnly Dean Wtr Emg Mk
- O – Realty Income Corp.
- OIH – Oil Services Holders
- PGJ – PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio
ETF/CEF Discussion: Before I talk about RSI’s picks, I am is disbelief that the market would have such a big lift from anything that Bernanke has to say, especially a “reassurance”. I don’t think he has a clue about the depth of the current recession. And his academic specialty was the great depression. Go figure.
With that said, RSI has made many picks today that reflect its interest in biotech & medical, foreign currencies, Asian equities, real estate, agriculture, and oil services. Virtually all its picks I would categorize as “falling knife” picks. Consider all these picks highly speculative and use caution. If the market continues to fall, these funds will suffer too.
FYI – O – Realty Income Corp. and HRP – Hrpt Properties Trust are both REITs and are not ETF/CEF. They pay a yield of 9.20% and 13.40% respectively.
Catch you tomorrow
MAJOR STOCK MARKET INDEXES FALL TO 1997 LEVELS – RSI HAS NO FUND PICKS February 23, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in Blogroll.add a comment
Today in the market, Monday, February 23, 2009: Wall Street has turned the clock back to 1997. Investors unable to extinguish their worries about a recession that has no end in sight dumped stocks again Monday. The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 251 points to its lowest close since May 7, 1997, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 index logged its lowest finish since April 11, 1997. It’s as if the decade’s dot-com surge, collapse and subsequent recovery never occurred.
The Dow is just over 100 points from 7,000. Both indexes have lost about half their value since hitting record highs in October 2007.
“People left and right are throwing in the towel,” said Keith Springer, president of Capital Financial Advisory Services.
Investors pounded most financial stocks even as government agencies led by the Treasury Department said they would launch a revamped bank rescue program this week. The plan includes the option of increasing government ownership in financial institutions without having to pour more taxpayer money into them. (headlines & market commentary by Yahoo Finances)
ETF/CEF Discussion: I have to use the ugly word again … sorry about that. RSI found nothing to cheer about and came up with no picks. You can interpret this as a vote of no confidence and a prediction of no bottom in sight. I have to agree with RSI on this call. I hope all of you are remaining defensive and keeping you powder dry.
Catch you tomorrow.
BANK FEARS HIT WALL STREET – RSI PICKS FOREIGN CURRENCIES, CHINA, GOLD AND A REIT February 20, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in CAF, FXC, FXF, GDX, HRP.add a comment
Today in the market, Friday, February 20, 2009: Stocks tumbled on Friday, with the Dow industrials closing at a 6-1/2-year low, on fears the government may be forced to nationalize some big banks even as the White House said it supports a privately held banking system.
Fears that some major banks could be taken over by the government had driven the S&P 500 close to a 12-year low before the White House issued its most direct statement yet on banks.
But even though the comments erased a sharp sell-off in bank stocks, the White House statement failed to address persistent uncertainty about how the government will rescue ailing banks. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- FXC – Currency Shares Canadian Dollar Trust
- FXF – Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- CAF – Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund
- GDX – Market Vectors Gold Miners
- HRP – Hrpt Properties Trust
ETF/CEF Discussion: Finally this bad, shortened week is over…thank heavens. RSI picks for today are a flight to foreign currencies, China, Gold and a REIT. The REIT is not an ETF/CEF fund, but an individual, high quality realty trust. It pays a 13.8% yield but its value is tied to the economy & the real estate market. So beware. These picks should be viewed as good alternative investments to the usual stuff. Give them a look.
Have a great weekend.
DOW ENDS AT LOWEST CLOSE IN MORE THAN 6 YEARS – RSI LIKES OIL & GAS SERVICES February 19, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in IEZ, PXJ, XES.add a comment
Today in the market, Thursday, February 19, 2009: The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled to its lowest close in more than six years on Thursday as sharp declines in key financial shares led the market lower. The blue chips broke through a psychological barrier established in November to close at their lowest level since Oct. 9, 2002, the last bear market low.
The feeble performance marks a setback for many investors who hoped the Nov. 20 finish would mark the low point of the market’s extended decline from its October 2007 highs.
The market’s inability to rally also signals that investors see no immediate end for the recession, which is already 14 months old and one of the most severe in decades.
The Dow had been threatening to break through the November bottom since Tuesday, when the index tumbled 300 points on worries about the economy and the stability of banks in Eastern Europe. Stocks had barely held the November low on Tuesday and Wednesday. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- IEZ – iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil Equipment & Services
- PXJ – PowerShares Dynamic Oil & Gas Services Portfolio
- XES – SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Index
ETF/CEF Discussion: I won’t mention the ugly word today. Certainly it would be in order, but let’s move onto the positive…RSI’s picks. The fact is that crude oil rose today and this caused RSI to pick three energy services funds. However, energy expectations have to be viewed in light of a worsening recession [depression?] fears and world economic reality. Look at the chart of these three ETFs. Buying them now is a bottom picking exercise, so use caution. They could fall further. This is a crap shoot. Remember, RSI’s picks are suggestions. Please use your own research and good judgement.
Catch you tomorrow to close out the week.
FED SAYS US ECONOMY WILL GET WORSE IN 2009 – RSI PICKS BIOTECH & ASIA FUNDS February 18, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BBH, CAF, GDX, ITB, IYR, PRF, TWN.add a comment
Today in the market, Wednesday, February 18, 2009: A government plan to stem foreclosures and a restructuring plan from GM did little to pull investors away from the sidelines, leaving stocks to spend the session trading sideways in choppy fashion. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- BBH – Biotech Holders
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- CAF – Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund
- TWN – Taiwan Fund, Inc.
ETF/CEF Discussion: With the FED forecasting a poor 2009 it is little wonder that RSI picks a China and a Taiwan fund. And then there is Biotech which will fare well under the new stimulus plan. Hope the plan works out. And yes, the check is in the mail.
FYI - I sold my positions in ITB, IYR, and PRF and I added to my GDX position.
Catch you tomorrow.
STOCKS SINK TO NOVEMBER LOWS ON RECESSION FEARS – RSI LIKES TIP AND THE SHORT Qs February 17, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in PSQ, QID, TIP.add a comment
Today in the market, Tuesday, February 17, 2009: Stocks slid within striking distance of the November bear-market low on Tuesday, as grim manufacturing data signaled the recession is worsening and warnings on risks facing European banks underscored the continuing toll of the financial crisis.
Financial stocks sank to 14-year lows after Moody’s Investors Service said banks could be hit by the recession in Eastern Europe, pulling the S&P Financial index down 8 percent.
Data showing a sharp contraction in Japan’s economy set the tone early in the day and helped yank oil prices down nearly 7 percent to below $35 a barrel. Chevron and Exxon Mobil were the Dow’s biggest drags, sliding more than 4 percent. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- TIP iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- PSQ ProShares Short QQQ Fund
- QID ProShares Ultra Short QQQ
ETF/CEF Discussion: I’m aware that I have said this quite often in the recent past, but I will repeat myself … this is an ugly market!! The downtrend is relentless and many expect this market to fall further to set a new low. When it is this ugly I expect that any rallies will meet more selling and the downtrend will persist. Anyway, that do I know? I do know that RSI agrees with my prognosis and has picked a conservative bond fund and two short funds. FYI, I won TIP in my IRA portfolio.
Catch you tomorrow.
STOCKS FALL AS INVESTORS CAN’T SHAKE ECONOMIC WOES – RSI PICKS T-BILLS, CANADIAN $, CHINA, TELECOM & SHORT THE MID-CAPS February 13, 2009
Posted by Marlowe Cassetti in BIL, CHN, FXC, IYZ, MYY, VOX.add a comment
Today in the market, Friday, February 13, 2009: Investors sent Washington a message this week: They won’t commit to stocks until the government commits to a plan.
Stocks ended lower Friday, pushing the Dow Jones industrial average to its lowest close since last November and leaving it with a weekly decline of 5.2 percent
With stock prices so low, “you’re certainly rewarded for risk-taking. Unfortunately, it’s not a great environment to take a lot of risk,” said Jack A. Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. “It’s a game of chicken, and most of us are chickens.”
The Dow fell 82.35, or 1.04 percent, to 7,850.41. It was the lowest close since Nov. 20, when the blue-chip index settled at a five-and-a-half month low of 7,552.29.
U.S. markets are closed Monday for Presidents Day. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)
ETF/CEF Low Volatility:
- BIL – SPDR Lehman 1-3 T-Bill
ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:
- FXC – Currency Shares Canadian Dollar Trust
ETF/CEF High Volatility:
- CHN – China Fund, Inc.
- IYZ – Telecom iShares
- MYY – ProShares Short MidCap 400 Fund
- VOX – Vanguard Telecommunication Services VIPERs
ETF/CEF Discussion: Despite the down market RSI picked the telecom sector funds and a China CEF. But it did go for a short fund. This is a push pull/market, so RSI is doing some cherry picking from its universe of funds. The DJIA is just 300 points from its Nov. 2008 low and I wouldn’t be surprised if it dives below it and continues its downtrend. So be surefooted and don’t get caught in the exit door.
Have a good long weekend and a happy Valentines Day. I’ll be posting after the market close on Tuesday.
