MARKETS MIXED ON LIGHT VOLUME – RSI PICKS MANY

Today in the market, Tuesday, June 09, 2009: Amid light trading volume the stock market ascended into the afternoon, but petered out some of its gains into the close. Still, semiconductor stocks and materials stocks were able to finish markedly higher.

ETF/CEF Low Volatility:

• CFT iShares Barclays Credit Bond Fund
• FXE Currency Shares Euro Trust
• FXF Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust
• UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund

 

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• LQD iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund

 

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• CEF Central Fund of Canada Ltd.
• DBB PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Metals Fund
• DIG ProShares Ultra Oil And Gas
• EPI WisdomTree India Earnings Fund
• HHH Internet Holders
• IGD ING Global Equity Dividend & Premium Opportunity Fund
• IGN Network iShares S&P/GSTI Index Fund
• INP iPath MSCI India ETN
• KOL Market Vectors – Coal ETF
• PGH Pengrowth Energy Trust
• PGX PowerShares Preferred Portfolio
• PIN PowerShares India Portfolio
• SLV iShares Silver Trust
• VDE Vanguard Energy VIPERs
• VUG Vanguard Growth VIPERs
• XME SPDR S&P Metals & Mining Index
• XSD SPDR S&P Semiconductor Index

 

 

ETF/CEF Discussion: I’m surprised that RSI has so many picks on such a lackluster day in the market. Although RSI picked some of today’s good performers it also singled out foreign currency funds as well as India funds. An interesting mix of funds.

IMPORTANT ANNOUNDEMENT – Until further notice this blog will change from a daily to a weekly blog. Please drop by this blog next week for some different fund investing insights.

MARKETS FLAT, BUT END WELL OFF LOWS – RSI NEUTRAL TOO

Today in the market, Monday, June 08, 2009:  Stocks had been under pressure for nearly the entire session as many participants began to question whether the run up by stocks in recent weeks has become overextended and whether positive economic news has already been priced into stock prices. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance) 

ETF/CEF Low Volatility:   

• BIL – SPDR Lehman 1-3 T-Bill

ETF/CEF High Volatility:  

• GML – SPDR S&P Emerging Latin America
• PHB – PowerShares High Yield Corporate Bond Portfolio

 ETF/CEF Discussion:    Not much to say about these rather conservative, neutral picks by RSI. I do like PHB, it has some good numbers. Yahoo ranks this fund as vulnerable to interest rate risk. We shall see. Catch you tomorrow.

STOCKS END THE DAY FLAT – RSI PICKS A CEFs

Today in the market, Friday, June 05, 2009: Mixed economic reports left investors confused and thus the market indices ended flat.

ETF/CEF High Volatility:
• DNP – Duff & Phelps Util Incm

ETF/CEF Discussion: I’m reluctant to suggest today’s lone pick. Its P/Y/E are 27.56%/10.09% /2.46% which are jaw dropping. Although the 10.09% dividend yield is great, a 27% premium to NAV is unreasonably too pricy. Also the almost 2 ½% expense ratio is awfully pricy for my taste. So there you have it … a terrible pick from RSI to end this bouncy week.

Have a great weekend.

MARKET MOVES HIGHER – RSI HAS MANY PICKS

Today in the market, Thursday, June 04, 2009:  The market was positive today on energy and financial stocks. Enthusiasm is returning to the market.

 ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:  

• EWM Malaysia iShares

ETF/CEF High Volatility:  

• DBA PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Agriculture Fund
• EEB Claymore/BNY BRIC ETF
• ERF Enerplus Resources Fund
• EWC Canada iShares
• EWZ Brazil iShares
• EZA South Africa iShares
• GTU Central Gold-Trust
• IEV Europe 350 iShares
• IGE Natural Resources iShares S&P GSSI Index Fund
• IGW Semiconductor iShares S&P/GSTI Index Fund
• IWD Russell 1000 Value iShares
• IWR Russell Mid-Cap iShares
• IWS Russell Mid-Cap Value iShares
• IWW Russell 3000 Value iShares
• IYM Basic Matls iShares
• KOL Market Vectors – Coal ETF 
• SLX Market Vectors Steel
• SSO ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund
• VO Vanguard Mid Cap VIPERs
• VOE Vanguard Mid Cap Value ETF
• VTV Vanguard Value VIPERs
• XLI Industrials Select Sector SPDR
• XME SPDR S&P Metals & Mining Index

ETF/CEF Discussion:    Well this is quite a data dump by RSI. The theme is certainly energy, natural resources and the foreign countries that produce energy and natural resources. There is a lot to look at here, just remember that the majority of these picks have had strong price movements since the start of this current rally. Therefore they are at the top of their price range and taking a position in any of them is making a bet that this rally has further to go. We shall see.

STOCKS FALL ON ECONOMIC WORRIES – RSI GOES CONSERVATIVE

Today in the market, Wednesday, June 03, 2009:  A selloff, that some call the end of the rally, set into the markets. RSI’s fund picks mirror this sentiment with a very conservative bent plus some short funds. Maybe the “bull market euphoria” has been sobered up with the reality of a grim economy. We shall see.

 I have used Windows Live Writer as the tool to produce my two blogs. I unfortunately upgraded to the latest version and yes, it doesn’t work with my two blogs. So I have to struggle through this problem.

 ETF/CEF Low Volatility:   

• AGG iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund
• BIL SPDR Lehman 1-3 T-Bill
• BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond
• SHY iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund

 ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:  

• TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares

High Volatility:  

• SDS ProShares Ultra Short S&P 500
• SH ProShares Short S&P 500 Fund

ETF/CEF Discussion:   And we though bonds were selling off, how wrong we are about that. RSI likes the bonds as the list above shows. There are also two short funds that bet against the market rally. We shall see.

A CHOPPY DAY ENDS MORE OR LESS FLAT – MORE ON EBTA & RSI’s FEW PICKS

Today in the market, Tuesday, June 02, 2009: Following yesterday’s impressive rally today saw choppy, but positive action. All the major indices ended flat to slightly higher.

Before I go into RSI’s picks for today, I want to spend a moment on Evidence Based Technical Analysis, which I refer to as EBTA. If we put on our scientist’s hat and look at traditional technical analysis with a degree of skepticism in the manner that scientists look at astrology, as an example. What do we find? We find a lot of baloney akin to the snake oil salesman pitch. And the key is look out for the “it’s an art and not a science” excuse that is the sure warning sign for non-evidence based claims. EBTA requires specific, testable rules based methodology that provides results that perform better than random chance. This is a tough proposition indeed. My goal is to insure RSI’s results have potential performance better than chance; another tough proposition.

ETF/CEF Low Volatility:

• IPE – SPDR Lehman Barclays Capital TIPS
• TIP – iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• MIN – MFS Intermediate Incm

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• USA – Liberty All Star Eqty Fund

ETF/CEF Discussion: Today’s choppy market caused RSI to retreat to picking some conservative funds which include two closed end funds (CEFs) which are MIN and USA. Both have good yields and reasonable expense ratios. USA trades at a huge discount to NAV of -22%! This could be a profitable opportunity or a trap or its discount could indefinitely. The price action looks okay, so take a look yourself.

The Chainsaw Pick: Yesterday I mentioned SRS for a potential short play. I failed to mention that I was looking for it to fall to under $17.79 before its expected rise. So if you are looking for some excitement you might monitor SRS.

For full disclosure I have a position in TIP. Again remember, please do your homework and you decide. RSI just makes suggestions.

A STRONG UP DAY IN THE MARKET – RSI IS BACK!

Today in the market, Monday, June 01, 2009: A strong day as the market averages exceed their 200 day moving averages (a baloney figure of merit, but it has become a self fulfilling prophecy). And reflecting the mood of the market, RSI has a lot of picks. Remember these picks are a reflection of this bull move and are not the right place to be if and when this rally fails; i.e. keep your stops tight. I have been using a trailing percentage stop on all my positions and they have served me well in this volatile market environment.

Hi there … it is good to be back although I didn’t anticipate this long pause in service. It was a good sabbatical from my daily blog and I am thinking about restructuring this to a weekly blog. Let me know your thoughts. Also thanks for all your messages of support and encouragement. I really didn’t know how many folks have found this blog important to their financial experience.

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• ACG – AllianceBernstein Income Fund, Inc.

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• AWF – Alliance Wrld Dlr Govt II
• CAF – Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund
• DBB – PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Metals Fund
• DBV – PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest Fund
• ETY – Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Diversified Equity Income Fund
• EWD – Sweden iShares
• EWW – Mexico iShares
• IGN – Network iShares S&P/GSTI Index Fund
• IGV – Software iShares S&P/GSTI Index Fund
• IWM – Russell 2000 iShares
• IXN – iShares S&P Global Information Technology Sector
• PHB – PowerShares High Yield Corporate Bond Portfolio
• TAN – Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF
• UYM – ProShares Ultra Basic Materials
• VAW – Vanguard Materials VIPERs
• VBK – Vanguard Small Cap Growth VIPERs
• VO – Vanguard Mid Cap VIPERs

ETF/CEF Discussion: RSI has picked a vast array of materials, foreign, and index funds. You won’t find these in the recommendations of “normal” financial channels. What sets these funds apart from the rest is that not only they have good price action, but they also possess something I refer to as conviction. I define conviction as a confluence of price, volume and time that points the way to further price appreciation. I will be referring to a confidence index in future blogs.

I have added a bonus to this blog entry and that is a very contrary play that is double short real estate. Please don’t buy this fund now, just keep this fund in mind when this current market rally breaks to the downside. You may find this to be a very profitable speculation (gamble) when the right time comes.

ETF/CEF Catch a Falling Chainsaw:

• SRS – ProShares Ultrashort RealEstate

A final note about my sabbatical-

I have spent a lot of time studying and running more analysis than you can possibly imagine. I have been greatly influenced by the excellent book Evidence Based Technical Analysis by David Aronson. In the coming weeks and months I will be discussing this book as it applies to technical analysis and RSI. I believe that followers will benefit from this discussion. Have a good day and I’ll catch you later.

GOLDMAN 1Q EARNINGS SURPASS WALL STREET ESTIMATES – RSI PICKS A FLOOD OF BOND FUNDS

Today in the market, Monday, April 13, 2009: Thanks to leadership from financial stocks, the stock market reversed an early 1.3% decline to finish with a modest gain.

Weakness was widespread and trading was listless in the early going. Financial stocks had been among the session’s worst performing sectors in the first few minutes of action, falling as much as 2.7% as traders took profits following the strong gains that financials registered late last week. However, buyers provided support by buying the dip in financials, as has been the case in recent weeks. (headline & commentary courtesy of briefing.com)

ETF/CEF Low Volatility:

• AGG – iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund
• BIL – SPDR Lehman 1-3 T-Bill
• BIV – Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond
• BLV – Vanguard Long-Term Bond
• BWX – SPDR Lehman International Treasury Bond ETF
• CFT – iShares Barclays Credit Bond Fund
• FXF – Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust
• IEI – iShares Lehman 3-7 Year Treasury Bond
• SHY – 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares
• TIP – iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• FXE – Currency Shares Euro Trust
• TLT – 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (Leh) iShares
• UDN – PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• EPD – Enterprise Products Partn

ETF/CEF Discussion: Please read the note below.

An important announcement about RSI. Due to my wife’s pending surgery and hospital stay this blog will be spotty for the next two weeks. I will have limited, if any time to spend on the production of this blog. I’m unsure as to my blog schedule. Please bear with me and check to see if there are any new postings. Thank you for your patience.

WELLS FARGO EARNINGS SURPRISE SENDS MARKET SURGING – RSI LIKES THE US DOLLAR AND COMMODITIES

Today in the market, Thursday, April 09, 2009: Stocks surged Thursday to their highest levels in two months after banking giant Wells Fargo & Co. surprised the market with an early profit report that blew past analysts’ expectations thanks to a strong pickup in its lending business.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped nearly 250 points and major market indexes logged their fifth straight week of gains. Markets are closed for Good Friday.

Investors have been grasping at any sign of improvement in the crippled banking industry, and Wells Fargo’s report Thursday that it expects first-quarter earnings of $3 billion provided an encouraging sign that a deep freeze in borrowing activity may finally be thawing. Wells Fargo said it benefited from its January acquisition of Wachovia and an increase in mortgage applications. (headline & commentary courtesy of Yahoo Finance)

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• UUP – PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• BCF – BlackRock Real Asset Equity Trust
• DBA – PowerShares DB Multi-Sector Commodity Trust Agriculture Fund
• GCS – Scudder Global Commodities Stock Fund Inc.
• HIO – Western Asset High Income Opportunity Fund Inc.
• HTR – Helios Total Return Fund, Inc.
• MOO – Market Vectors Agribusiness

ETF/CEF Discussion: A great day in the market as investors piled into stocks as the shorts covered their bets. I’m particularly lucky to have exited my SRS position yesterday. Anyway, please peruse the lists of funds as potential buy candidates. FYI – I own MOO.

I’ll catch you tomorrow after the closing bell.

HOUSING DEAL, HOPE FOR INSURERS LIFT STOCKS- RSI HAS A SLUG OF PICKS

Today in the market, Wednesday, April 08, 2009: Insurance and technology shares led the market higher in a volatile day Wednesday, breaking a two-day slide. But a dim view of the economy from the Federal Reserve and jitters over looming earnings reports kept buyers in check.

The Dow Jones industrials rose 47.55, or 0.6 percent, to 7,837.11.

Stocks got an early lift from a deal combining two major homebuilders and a report saying the government was poised to extend aid to battered life insurance companies, then wavered throughout the day before ending slightly higher.

The Dow had fallen 3 percent over Monday and Tuesday, which analysts saw as a necessary breather following a powerful rally in March that gave the Dow its biggest four-week surge since 1933. (headline & commentary courtesy of AP via Yahoo Finance)

ETF/CEF Low Volatility:

• BIL SPDR Lehman 1-3 T-Bill
• BIV Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond
• BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond
• GVI iShares Lehman Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Fund
• MUB iShares S&P National Municipal Bond Fund
• TIP iShares Lehman TIPS Bond Fund

ETF/CEF Medium Volatility:

• EVG Eaton Vance Short Duration Diversified Income Fund
• LQD iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund

ETF/CEF High Volatility:

• BGR BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust
• EAD Evergreen Income Advantage Fund, Inc.
• EFR Eaton Vance Senior Floating Rate Trust
• HRP Hrpt Properties Trust

ETF/CEF Discussion: Since I had a late meeting tonight I have to make this short and sweet and no charts tonight. Today’s picks ahe heavy with bond and income funds. Plus we have energy & resource CEF plus a real estate trust (not an ETF/CEF). So it’s your choice.

FYI, I have been a long term holder of TIP and it just paid a nice interest payment. The bond funds in my portfolio have been a good, steady anchor that have weathered out this financial storm. Also I booked a nice 15%, short term gain with my position in SRS which was from my “falling knife strategy” that I mentioned recently. That system is still under development.

Catch you tomorrow, but it could also be quite late AGAIN.